I’m definitely not suggesting that you short a tech momentum stock in this market. is still small enough for competitors to defeat before it’s too late.Īs always, this is not investment advice. ’s product fits with the old guard, but it hasn’t had as much time as them to dig moats. People hate old, locked-in enterprise software, and love the new breed of product-first, consumerized B2B SaaS. The Love-Hate Relationship with Work Software. touts the highest revenue multiple in the entire BVP Cloud Index, and it has neither the numbers nor the product to back it up. What is ? A just-the-facts look at Bill’s product, business model, and distribution. This whole bear thing is new to me, so we’ll take it one step at a time: Market leaders with strong growth, big margins, profitability, and best-in-class products will continue to earn strong multiples, but laggards with outdated products and relatively unattractive numbers will underperform, regardless of sub-sector or market cap. There’s going to be a flight to quality within tech. While 2020 was a year for unbridled tech optimism, I think 2021 is going to be a year for discerning tech optimism. It forced me to sharpen my bear claws heading into a year during which sharp bear claws will come in handy. It brings me no joy to pop the Bill bubble.īut having a bad experience with was lucky.
#Bear writer angellist free#
I, as a reminder, write a free newsletter. The company’s 618 employees are trying their best, and they’ve built a company worth over $11 billion.
If it walks like a Salesforce and quacks like a Salesforce, or something.) note: I learned, after writing this sentence, that indeed, ’s first two engineers came from Salesforce and the company bought the domain from Marc Benioff. And did I mention its product? It feels like something a Salesforce Product Manager would dream up if Salesforce enacted Google-like 20% projects. It faces competition from powerful incumbents, fintech darlings like Stripe and Square, and new startups like Settle. Its revenue growth is slowing, its revenue multiple: dizzying, its free cash flow: negative. Bill is a bottom-quartile BVP Emerging Cloud Index company trading like a top quartile one. That must be reflected in the stock price, right? Wrong.īill’s stock price nearly quadrupled last year, and the numbers don’t support the move. Surely, if I felt this way, others did too. But every time I have to log into, a little bear growls loudly on my right shoulder, drowning out the typically ever-present angel on my left.įinally, the growling got loud enough that I decided to look at the numbers.
I have a really hard time seeing the downside. As I wrote last time, I’m a natural born optimist. When I set out to write a takedown of SoftBank, I came away kind of loving Masa.
Try again!”įinally, on the fifth try, we got it, but not before a strange and unusual feeling set in: I was officially bearish on. Maybe you should contact customer support.” I kept trying to fix it on my end, even upgraded to a paid plan, kept telling them that it was fixed. But they kept trying to pay me and they kept getting notifications that it didn’t work. They wanted to pay me, asked me to invoice them on. Here’s how it went down: a company sponsored Not Boring.
It was the fifth email in a long back-and-forth with a sponsor that changed me, made me bearish on a company not named “Quibi” for once.
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